SF Writers Say Smart Things: Cory Doctorow on statistics and security

I often use the same example Cory uses here in discussing security issues at work: 99% effective means 10,000 failures over a million instances. Which in turn means that if you’re trying to detect a 1-in-a-million event, then you will get it 9999 false positives for every real event you detect–and at that rate, you will never find the actual threat, since you will waste all your resources on the false positives.

Cory Doctorow: Our dangerous statistical ignorance | Technology | guardian.co.uk
You don’t get to understand the statistics of rare events by intuition. It’s something that has to be learned, through formal and informal instruction. If there’s one thing the government and our educational institutions could do to keep us safer, it’s this: teach us how statistics works.